Why did Brexit happen

Brexit like Trump was a shock to the fairly established system. A nationalist protest against rising immigration and globalisation.

Brexit was years in the making, carefully orchestrated as a combined effort by non-stop lies in public tabloid papers, who would display outright disgraceful lies and photoshopped images in an effort to scare the nation about the dangers of immigration and globalisation.

These papers and parties took advantage of demographics and areas (mostly in England) of people who have been let down by the Government, left behind in an age of centralisation.  These parties through questionable social media and print strategies have stroked a flame that hasn’t quite died down yet.

What happens next will either dampen it or pour some more petrol on the division until we see something similar to the rather unfortunate French situation.

The problem with Brexit

The Brexit vote, being a cocky bet made by David Cameron as a power move to reign in the conservative party which has backfired on an epic scale – Will likely be one of the biggest moments in British history

The problem with Brexit is as an idea, it is inherently flawed. Brexit was far too complicated an issue to have put to the public to begin with, nevermind with a simple 2 vote response. It was used mostly by politicians who backed it as a career move to boost their standing. None of them had a real plan

Everyone has their own idea of what Brexit means, whether that’s the sovereign or an anti-immigration stance, sadly believing a word of the £350 million a week to the NHS lie or just those tired of the system and wanting to show a clear protest. The problem is there was never a clear concise idea of how it would be executed – just fantasy ideas wafted out to the public to see what would stick. 

You can tell this when you listen to any call in radio station, I find LBC to be my usual and you’ll hear a stem of confused and angry callers – unable to give a real reason for why they’ve voted Brexit but all very clear that ‘they knew what they voted for’ despite very apparently, even the ruling leaders had no idea what it would mean. Not to say this was all of the brexiteers lies fault, there were plenty of lies and pretentious attitudes on the remain side also

May was always the ‘fall person’ and no one truly expected her to succeed, otherwise they would have campaigned themselves. The United Kingdom is completely divided on the issue so gaining the support of one side means completely alienating the other side. May understood this and tried to appeal to both.

The problem with trying to appeal to both as anyone should have expected on an issue as complex as Brexit, is that you end up appeasing no one. Which is why the Government finds itself in the awful situation it’s currently in. 

The Government miraculously in a 50/50 split has managed to upset both sides. 

The problem with government 

If you have ever truly paid attention to a brexiteers point of view, many of them are valid points. The problem, however, is the majority of the issues have been blamed incorrectly on the EU.

Blame is easily passed in UK politics, it’s so easy to point fingers and have useless debates but when it comes to definitive action on vital issues such as correctly enforcing immigration laws ( EU immigrants are only entitled to stay up to 3 months without a job – not indefinitely ), managing benefits and welfare and public expenditure ( look at the public cuts to police expenditure in London and the outright lies of the UK Government saying it has made no difference). It seems like it is all falling apart and the EU is at fault for none of it. 

Between Brexit, RHI, failed railway infrastructure schemes in England, the current state or rather, non state of Stormont, it seems abundantly clear the governments of today can no longer function correctly. This might have always been the case but not so easily discerned without the lightning-fast spread of information with social media, you no longer need an investigative reporter to hold these parties to account.

The old methods of control are failing, people are more informed and misinformed than ever. Thanks partly to Brexit, The government is no longer seen as being reputable or truthful, the BBC has openly been called into question more time over its biased reporting nature than I’ve witnessed in my lifetime. 

Yet for all the Government failings the opposition have utterly failed to offer anything of any substance besides either blind patriotism or hope for the best policy. Nigel Farage (for all his talk on LBC), Boris Johnson and Mogg for all their talk were quick to disappear after the vote and haven’t found a way to navigate the complicated maze of Brexit without just blaming the EU or remainers in the government. 

Then there is Labour, while I like Corbyn the person as a politician he’s been utterly useless and been as wishy washy as his parties politics. Had labour took a hardline stance on either Brexit or remain after the vote they would have been real opposition yet the party itself is about as divided as the Tories are. 

If I had to take a summary from this it would be as follows. 

  • A) The Government under intense scrutiny doesn’t appear to be fit for purpose. 
  • B) May whilst being a remainer, has tried to appeal to everyone and that has been her downfall. She also is a rather poor negotiator but then again hasn’t had the best supporting cast in a split governement.  I don’t believe there has been some grand conspiracy that she’s deliberately held out as long as possible to convince people against Brexit as some sort of long-term project fear project. 
  • C) One of the Brexiteers main wishes is to have control of their laws back and for our government to be in full control. Are you still sure that’s a great idea? It seems good politicians are somewhat of a lost art

When this is all looked back on in the history books, the key turning point will be Mays failed attempt to rally the country with a pre-emptive general election. That resulted in her having to prop up her party with the DUP which ultimately, would be the downfall of her Brexit plans. 

The problem with the union

The United Kingdom, has never been less United in my memory anyway. With Scotland and Northern Ireland voting to remain in the European Union, we’re seeing some side effects as a result. Scotland is openly seeking another referendum and the Irish Border question has openly raised a border poll into public debate. Simply writing these off as saying ‘we voted as the UK to leave’, doesn’t change the attitudes of those tired of being dragged through the swamp by the choices of the majority in another country.

In particular, this attitude and the general lack of attention given to Northern Irelands unique situation with Europe and the Republic of Ireland has shown the lack of care of the mainland towards Northern Ireland. The nationalist side spurned by the vote to leave Europe (and Ireland) and the threat of a tougher border because of it. Not that much can be blamed on the average English voter for ignoring Northern Ireland, it’s history barely mentioned in education and politics often ignored in everyday news – The DUP entering mainland politics to prop up the minority government was likely the first many of the country had heard from Northern Ireland in many years.

The loyalist side and particularly the DUP have been shown no more respect than mere lackeys after the Government and May’s more or less open lies to them about the backstop and how the brexit plans would affect Northern Ireland.

May might have made her fatal attitude though in underestimating the DUP’s vainness, in that they’d rather starve with British pride than ever let the country prosper and living with the best of both worlds.

Northern Ireland was in the unique position of *kind of* remaining in Europe through regulations but also being part of the union, the trading border, therefore, would have been moved to the irish sea in the ‘backstop’. The DUP refused, as they couldn’t abide by being different to the rest of the UK in any shape or form*

( *Unless you count the numerous alcohol licensing laws, abortion rights, the right of it’s citizens to have Irish and British citizenship by right of birth, attitudes towards water cannons, policing, a government that hasn’t been in session for nearly 700 days.. the list goes on.)

The issue with Northern Ireland & the Irish border

 “Number one, it’s not the Irish border, it’s the British border in Ireland. The Irish border is the beach”

Andrew Maxwell

If you’ve never lived in Northern Ireland, you could be forgiven for not understanding it. This is a country where ideologies are often held above any care of economic status. A country where paramilitaries still rule the roost and many former members are currently working for Stormont. A country basically split between hardline unionism – the love of a flag and those wanted to reunite with the rest of the island. 

Stuck inbetween these 2 groups is the majority of the public, who are mostly too afraid to speak out for fear of drawing attention or letting the other side look better and therefore, gaining some traction in the fragile political atmosphere, the unfortunate result of this – is what we allow these parties away with as a result. 

This is after all, a country where the inhabitants will ignore 1.5 billion expenditure of public money (in a country without a lot of money) being wasted on a clearly flawed energy scheme and still vote for that party to ‘keep them un’s out *them un’s meaning Sinn Fein who want a United Ireland.

A country where the name of a city – Derry / Londonderry is a more important issue than the lack of public infrastructure ‘west of the bann‘  A country where both sides are more a like than they could ever care to, both sides having a bizzare love for bonfires and covering them in crude language, threats and promising general violence towards the other side. That’s not even getting into the public costs they cost in policing, cleaning up and the general health risk to the nearby general public and those living in the estates breathing in toxic fumes. 

Finally, a country with a violent past, a murky present and a very uncertain future. Brexit might have a larger impact on Northern Ireland than any other country.  Yet when you go back to the initial vote – it was rarely brought up and most English voters *who decided the vote* never spared it a first thought nevermind a second.

Truths of how Northern Ireland and the rest of. the UK have / will be affected since have since been written off as ‘Project Fear’ the same as every other head in the sand answer for legitimate concern. 

How would a hard border affect Ireland & Northern Ireland

Well it would have a strong negative effect on the tourism for a start, Northern Ireland and Ireland have enjoyed a strong tourism boost by the ease of traversing between the countries, particularly along the ‘wild Atlantic way’ which stretches from Derry to the very bottom of Ireland along the west coast. There has been a lot of talk about freedom of movement between Northern Ireland not having anything to do with the EU and yet, the EU was vital to securing peace in Northern Ireland with the Good Friday Agreement and after all.

So what about a ‘smart border’ – well this one is mostly just a sheer fantasy, mostly because A) the technology doesn’t really exist. B) Any cameras or systems setup to ‘toughen the border’ would most likely be destroyed. 

Then even if you had the technology in place to have a ‘smart border’ – there’s the small problem of having over 200 crossing points, paying the staff to manage it and getting the budget for it. 

Hardline Brexiteers stand by that the Irish border isn’t even an issue and we’d keep it as it is even with a no deal Brexit based on our relationship with Ireland. There’s a few problems with that however. 

Without a backstop, how do you control your borders as far as customs go, immigration etc in a country with no border controls? The border is invisible literally figuratively and literally – the only way you know you’ve crossed the border currently, is that on some roads you’ll see the national speed limit change to KM and that the roads are generally in better conditions in the south. 

It’s important to note that the majority of Northern Ireland do not want a return to violence, however the peace process has always felt as if it balanced on the edge of a knife.

Why the EU Was actually a good thing

In Northern Ireland, the EU has played a huge role in ‘peace in our time’. The Good Friday agreement, the peace bridge in Derry / Londonderry. 

When you consider we’ve had two world wars just this past century which nearly tore Europe apart, the idea of complete peace between them has been fantastic. There is an old saying that “When goods don’t cross borders, Soldiers will”. Which is true, if we’ve proved anything in our brief history it’s that the only thing mankind likes more than war is greed. 

Even with the recently unveiled idea of a ‘European’ army, we didn’t exactly win either World War by ourselves. The idea of having nukes and huge armies is it acts as a preventive measure by the idea of mutually assured destruction. When we don’t have treaties and alliances you see countries being picked apart and bullied, much like we see happening with Ukraine. 

I’m not saying it’s a perfect strategy but it sure beats being billy no mates, which the UK isn’t that far off being with it’s unique relationship with the United States fading away, the open hostility with the EU, Russia’s open attacks on UK soil and the former commonwealth nations becoming more independent with no need to appease the parent as the years go on. 

Why the EU is still flawed

The EU was created with the best intentions, has been flawed in the execution of many of its approaches. The EU army idea was poorly handled, the UN’s idea of openly banning speech on immigration doesn’t help matters either.

The EU is currently experiencing a sleuth of problems, the yellow vest riots in France, Spains issues with Catalonia and how that was handled by the EU. Italy budget issues and much more.

This and the rise of nationalism has made many doubt its future. The times they are a changing but they are the most uncertain times, the only countries who seem to be staying steady or getting stronger are the United State, Russia & China and this might not all be unconnected, we’ve already had Russian interference in elections after all..

Some food for thought

  • Should Brexit actually happen, how many EU adopted Laws will end up staying the same anyway. Bear in mind how long it takes this country to come over the smallest of decisions they’ll likely end up keeping most of the proven EU laws anyway. 
  • Austerity which was a UK measure – nothing to do with the EU will likely prove to have been for naught should we go with a no deal brexit as it will lead to more years of austerity or recession. The poor will be the ones to bear this weight.
  • The NHS is under real threat with most of the European workers having left to go back to their home countries after a few years of open racism. For these and other vacanted jobs, it’s going to take years if not decades to replace this if you’re UK worker focused. 
  • With the recent clamp down on ‘self-employed’ contractors with IR35 and less employers offering full-time work due to the rise of the living wage, an employment crisis is coming.

Note

At the time of writing and final edits. May’s vote for her plan has just postponed indefinitely and was still in charge of Government.